Origin III - Fortress Breached
All the takeaways immediately after the Blues historic win at the Cauldron.
Michael Maguire’s New South Wales Blues have secured a historic Origin series victory at Suncorp Stadium in a game that will go down as an instant classic for those south of the border. In one of the most physically taxing and head-spinning games of rugby league that I have ever witnessed, the Blues were able to hold their nerve and overpower a gallant Maroons team that tackled itself into the ground with fifteen minutes to go.
The Build-Up
For the week leading up to this game, I’d had some sort of existential dread about what was to come. While I’m maybe the most anxiety-induced Raiders fan in existence, this feeling of dread is not one that I’m accustomed to in regard to the Maroons. Something felt different this time around though - the preparation of both teams was the polar opposite of their stereotypes. Queensland were dealing with huge (and valid) question marks about their selections and rumours of rifts throughout their camp, while New South Wales were essentially silent in the build up. As Nick Campton said so perfectly on NRL Boom Rookies this week, it felt as though the Maroons were trying to rely on Queensland Spirit to get them home in this decider, but ignoring all the steps that it takes for the magic of that spirit to kick in. Their back should not have been against the wall coming into this game, but they tried their best to put it there with stubborn selections that went against everything we’d seen so far to date in this series.
The Game
From the first hit-up of the game, the Blues physical dominance that has plagued Queensland all series continued. If not for a miracle Daly Cherry-Evans ankle tap, the Blues would have scored in the very first set of the game with a shift to their left edge. While Queensland were far more energetic and physical in their defence, they were still unable to get on top in the arm-wrestle at any stage of the first half. While Dylan Edwards routinely started sets with a kick return 30 metres out from his own line, Queensland were instead forced to fight and scrap just to get to their own 20m line.
The New South Wales pack is a monstrous mix of speed, size, aggression and effort and despite Queensland’s courage on the night, their understrength pack couldn’t go blow for blow with the Blues. Even when Queensland really turned the screws defensively, New South Wales were able to find a quick play the ball through Haas or Murray on play five to ease any kick pressure. If not for Bradman Best having a poor half with his hands and the remarkable defensive resilience of Queensland on their own goal line, this first half could have very easily followed the same path as Game II.
While I wasn’t a fan of his inclusion, I thought Kurt Capewell tackled his ass off with Pat Carrigan and Reuben Cotter throughout this period, with the trio finishing the first half with 25, 37 and 31 tackles respectively. The effort from Queensland was as good as it’s been all series, but the limitations of their personnel still prevented them from reaping any reward. The Blues still went into half-time with a 60/40 possession split and more than 300m more run metres than the Maroons. Despite Queensland’s 2-0 lead, it was these repeat efforts in the first half that ensured the Blues were able to overpower them as the game wore on.
And therein lies the problem of this year’s Maroons team - they were not built to counter what the Blues had to throw at them. They were completely outmuscled in Game I and II and responded by dropping their strongest performing backrower in favour of a fullback who’d played just one game in three months. They were obliterated in possession and territory in the first half of Game II and countered this by starting a 32 year old Felise Kaufusi and 31 year old Kurt Capewell against the likes of Haas, Murray, Martin and Crichton.
They clearly had plans to try and get at the Blues edges but their inability to generate any kind of ruck speed or go forward rendered these attacking shifts useless. I can’t tell you the amount of times that a Blues edge player picked off either DCE or Dearden as soon as they touched the ball out the back of shape in Game II and III.
Everything that Billy Slater touched turned to gold in his first two seasons in charge of the Maroons, but this series was a dramatic crash back down to Earth. The eloquent and thoughtful answers that he provided throughout 2022 and 2023 were replaced with a tense and cagey demeanour when the pressure was applied this series. The “We’re Still Queenslanders” moment was maybe the most bizarre press conference quote since David Kidwell’s “The Key is We” and his explanations for non-selections were hypocritical and demeaning to fans.
Jeremiah Nanai
“I think the biggest thing for Dave to work on is that when he gets fatigued or tired, that’s when the habits of an Origin player are important. That’s just one part of Dave’s game that he can be better at and if he takes that on board and takes the disappointment and knows that there are still little things he needs to get better … it’s up to him now.”
Darren Lockyer on David Fifita’s omission from Game III.
In a way it is fitting that the game was finally broken open in the 64th minute by a lazy defensive play under fatigue by Jeremiah Nanai. I have yelled and screamed to anyone who will listen that it is simply not possible to rate Jeremiah Nanai as a player if you do not rate David Fifita. Slater and the Maroons camp have tread out this tired narrative all series that Fifita has “not met his standards” and “makes errors under fatigue” as reasons why he can’t be picked, yet continued to pick Nanai who is one of the competitions leaders in negative plays (4th in errors, equal 6th in penalties conceded, 4th in try causes and equal 2nd in line break causes amongst backrowers).
The reasons surrounding Fifita’s omission were contradictory from the outset and they continued to age poorly as the series went on. I’d love to say that I think Slater will take lessons from tonight, but if he didn’t pick Fifita with Flegler, Fa'asuamaleaui, Gilbert, Horsburgh and Hopgood unavailable, I have no faith that we will see him in this arena again while Slater is the coach.
The Blues
While it makes me physically ill to say it, this is an all-time great series win for New South Wales. With the adversity of the send-off and 28 point loss at home in Game I, they had no right to win this series, let alone completely dominate it from the first play of Game II. So many Blues players came of age in this series that it’s genuinely difficult to narrow it down to a few. Mitchell Moses established himself as one of, if not the premier halfback’s in the competition, Zac Lomax has become a player I never thought he would and Payne Haas finally had the breakout Origin series that has been coming for so long. Nearly every player who took the field for the Blues in Game II and III of this series is in the best form of their career and the combination of speed and physicality that they played with was incredible (and terrifying) to watch. Fair play!
Other Notes:
Only rugby league could have no clock showing for the first fifteen minutes of its showpiece event.
Tom Dearden had his best game of Origin tonight despite being in a losing side. Came up with two massive plays defensively in the first half and looked Queensland’s most likely in attack.
I mentioned it last game but Harry Grant’s stagnation as a player continues to frustrate. His penalty conceded and miss on Moses ended this game.
Pat Carrigan was head and shoulders above any other Queensland forward in this series. In a pack that got completely dominated in all three games, it felt like he was the only one who gave provided any sort of resistance.
I hate what has happened to drop-outs this year. Is it because both my Raiders and Maroons can’t retrieve or defuse any? Maybe, but I hate how much it’s devalued earning a repeat set.
A cut-out ball that Mitchell Moses threw in the first half is the fastest I’ve ever seen a Steeden zing. That thing was so gorgeous that I’m ashamed at the noise I made in response.
Angus Crichton’s resurgence from Reserve Grade to Origin Man of the Series in the same season is one for the ages. Why couldn’t this happen to Corey Horsburgh instead?
Andrew Johns spends a minute talking about Richie Mo'unga’s presence in Blues camp, just for Brad Fittler to interject from the sideline and explain that Richie Mo'unga has been in Blues camp. Great stuff.
Jarome Luai might already be a Mt Rushmore rugby league villain (compliment).
Four straight Raiders losses and two straight Origin losses in the last six weeks, my Euro vacay and a break from rugby league can’t come quick enough.
Another series in the books designing the game-day graphics for Channel 9’s coverage. Really happy with how Game I and III turned out in particular.
My designs for Channel 9's Coverage of the 2024 Origin Series.
Handsome words, I especially liked the part where you complimented the Blues